Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.341574 1.391388 1.442649 1.499482 1.560895 1.625446 1.698671
2025-12-28 1.284204 1.351500 1.422816 1.504442 1.595827 1.695636 1.813803
2026-01-04 1.247911 1.328339 1.415571 1.518032 1.636187 1.769584 1.933703
2026-01-11 1.205488 1.294483 1.392765 1.510603 1.649813 1.811416 2.016973
2026-01-18 1.173009 1.269331 1.377416 1.509436 1.668905 1.858948 2.108647
2026-01-25 1.130650 1.230470 1.343821 1.484227 1.656753 1.866645 2.149740
2026-02-01 1.101839 1.205854 1.325370 1.475514 1.663255 1.896615 2.220272
2026-02-08 1.075035 1.182323 1.306890 1.465366 1.666689 1.921948 2.285471
2026-02-15 1.050220 1.160097 1.288864 1.454559 1.668134 1.943983 2.346870
2026-02-22 1.034259 1.147777 1.282140 1.457168 1.686378 1.988571 2.442795
2026-03-01 1.006457 1.120156 1.255569 1.433339 1.668508 1.982715 2.464068
2026-03-08 0.984330 1.098799 1.236008 1.417596 1.660388 1.989419 2.503982
2026-03-15 0.964108 1.079640 1.219076 1.405220 1.657000 2.003577 2.558260
2026-03-22 0.955876 1.074987 1.220076 1.416072 1.685435 2.064415 2.691438
2026-03-29 0.950890 1.074117 1.225676 1.432983 1.722798 2.140416 2.857719
2026-04-05 0.937535 1.062280 1.216743 1.429883 1.731497 2.173713 2.954775
2026-04-12 0.926892 1.053554 1.211486 1.431422 1.746682 2.217585 3.075311
2026-04-19 0.907463 1.033154 1.190443 1.410531 1.728143 2.207275 3.094670
2026-04-26 0.894799 1.021136 1.180057 1.403976 1.730320 2.229869 3.178610
2026-05-03 0.882042 1.008699 1.168772 1.395730 1.729488 2.247315 3.254308
2026-05-10 0.869491 0.996258 1.157156 1.386600 1.726832 2.261405 3.324719
2026-05-17 0.862214 0.990467 1.154187 1.389481 1.742369 2.306573 3.465271
2026-05-24 0.845903 0.972587 1.134624 1.368125 1.719706 2.285267 3.460097